Research Consultant: Lebanon country study,… at Mercy Corps · Lebanon

Please note the closing date for applications is November 20th

Background

Prosper Global is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future. To do this, we know our teams do their best work when they are diverse and every team member feels that they belong. We welcome diverse backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be stronger and have long-term impact.

Prosper Global has developed a Crisis Analysis function to support our programming in the most complex contexts, including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and others. The Crisis Analysis supports Prosper Global’s in-country programming as well as the wider humanitarian response in the region through the provision of quality, timely and relevant analytical products. This analysis is grounded in Prosper Global’s position as an operational NGO, keeping our products constructive and relevant for humanitarian, early recovery, and development responders and donors within a given crisis.

This consultancy is part of “Strengthening Regional Policy Dialogue and Partnerships on Solutions”, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Prosper Global initiative funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program (RDPP). RDPP is a multi-donor platform managed by the Kingdom of Denmark that has supported refugees and displaced communities in the countries neighboring Syria since 2014; the initiative supports evidence-based advocacy and partnerships on adaptive solutions for refugee and displaced communities.

Purpose / Project Description

Under this initiative, Prosper Global and UNDP are conducting “Return Implications for Host Economies”, a set of three country studies on Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The studies examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment in Lebanon and Jordan, and how returns shape the same dynamics in the main areas of return in Syria. Each study will be led by a dedicated consultant. Findings from the three studies will be compared to identify common challenges, opportunities and areas of convergence, and to develop regional recommendations to support policy dialogue with host governments, the private sector and local actors, and to inform the planning of UN agencies, donors and humanitarian and development actors.

This consultancy covers the Lebanon study. Syrian labor in Lebanon has been concentrated in agriculture, construction and cleaning, the sectors in which Syrians are legally permitted to work, and much of it is informal, so administrative data capture it poorly. Agricultural employers are increasingly concerned about labor shortages as Syrians return, while the departure of Syrian households may reduce local demand for goods, housing and transport and affect donor-funded services designed for both host and refugee communities. Given the size of Lebanon’s economy and the role refugees have played in it, these effects could be significant, but they are expected to be uneven across sectors and localities and coincide with Lebanon’s 2026 conflict and falling aid budgets. The study will therefore combine national secondary data with primary data collection focused on the most affected sectors and on the localities with the highest concentration of Syrian refugees, and will distinguish between the periods before and after December 2024.

Consultant Objectives

• Document how Syrians contribute to the economy of Lebanon as workers, consumers and recipients of public services, by sector and location, and how this has changed since December 2024.

• Assess how returns are affecting the labor market in the most affected sectors and localities: vacancies, whether they are filled by host-country nationals, other migrant workers or mechanization, and effects on wages, labor costs, informality, supply chains and output.

• Assess how returns are affecting consumer demand and local markets, including food, retail goods, rented housing and transport, and how changes in cash assistance and remittance flows to Syrian households affect local economies.

• Assess how returns are affecting local services and public finances: where demand for education, health, water, waste and electricity services has eased, where capacity is underused, and how funding for services shared by host and refugee communities is changing.

• Assess how businesses and donors are adjusting their hiring, expansion, mechanization, relocation and financing plans in response to returns.

• Develop country-level recommendations for policy dialogue on options (for example labor regulation, work permits, skills programs and service planning) that could help the economy of Lebanon adjust in ways that benefit both host and refugee communities, and contribute to the regional recommendations.

Consultant Activities

The Consultant will:

• Review published and ongoing studies on the economic impact of Syrian refugees and their return in Lebanon, including work by UN agencies, the World Bank, ILO, research centers and NGOs, to confirm evidence gaps, avoid duplication and refine the research questions.

• Check data availability on labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows and returns, including the geographic level, period and access conditions of each source, and recommend which additional components are feasible (for example an exposure index scoring districts by their pre-2024 reliance on Syrian labor and consumption, a comparison of high- and low-exposure areas, a rapid employer survey, remote-sensing or mobility data, analysis of funding flows, or forward-looking scenarios).

• Finalize the research design, including sampling, locations, sector selection, tools, workplan and risk-mitigation measures, for approval by Prosper Global and UNDP before fieldwork begins.

• Analyze secondary data covering the five research areas (labor market, consumer demand, local services and public finances, investment, and policy options), with national coverage, drawing on sources such as labor force surveys, the Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon (VASyR), WFP and REACH market monitoring, national price and rent data, service-use data from line ministries, and UNHCR return data.

• Conduct at least 20 key informant interviews with employers, chambers of commerce, agricultural and construction associations and unions, municipalities, line ministries (including the Ministry of Labor), service providers, donors, banks, and UN and NGO actors. The final number and composition will be set out in the inception report.

• Conduct at least two sector deep-dives (agriculture and construction are expected, to be confirmed at inception), covering employers, workers and each sector’s supply chain.

• Conduct focus group discussions with host-community workers, Syrians who remain in Lebanon, and employers or small business owners, separated by gender where needed, in the localities with the highest concentration of Syrian refugees.

• Triangulate each finding across more than one source, report findings as associations unless the design and data support causal claims, use UNHCR return figures as broad indicators rather than precise counts, and state where other factors (including Lebanon’s 2026 conflict, the economic crisis and falling aid budgets) affect the trends observed.

• Apply the study’s ethics and conflict-sensitivity principles throughout: neutrality on return (the study neither assesses whether conditions for safe, voluntary and dignified return are met nor advocates for or against returns); language that does not imply a policy preference; informed consent; no personal identifiers in datasets; extra safeguards for refugees and returnees whose legal status is insecure; exclusion from interview guides of topics that could expose participants (such as military service, individual property disputes or political affiliation); and secure data storage with access limited to the research team.

• Coordinate with the consultants leading the other two country studies and with Prosper Global to align definitions, tools and report structure, and contribute to the comparison of findings and the regional recommendations.

• Present findings at the validation workshop and incorporate feedback from review rounds with Prosper Global and UNDP.

Consultant Deliverables

The Consultant will:

• Inception report: review of published and ongoing studies, data availability check, recommendation on which additional components are feasible, final research design, sampling, sector and location selection, data collection tools (English and Arabic), ethics and data protection plan, risk-mitigation measures and fallback options, and detailed workplan. Draft by the end of week 2; final version approved by Prosper Global and UNDP in week 3.

• Presentation of emerging findings to Prosper Global and UNDP at the end of fieldwork (week 11).

• Draft Lebanon country report, with country-level recommendations and inputs to the regional recommendations, by the end of week 15.

• Final Lebanon country report, revised following review rounds and the validation workshop, by the end of week 20.

• Inputs to the short briefs for priority audiences, as set out in the dissemination plan agreed with UNDP and RDPP during inception.

• Final data collection tools, anonymized datasets and anonymized interview and focus group notes.

Timeframe / Schedule

The consultancy is expected to run for approximately 20 weeks. The indicative calendar below assumes a start on 16 November 2026 and will be adjusted to the contract date. The contractual end date should be 30 June 2027, in line with the RDPP grant end date.

• Inception (weeks 1–3, 16 Nov – 4 Dec 2026): draft inception report by the end of week 2; approval by Prosper Global and UNDP in week 3.

• Fieldwork and analysis (weeks 4–11, 7 Dec 2026 – 29 Jan 2027): interviews with officials and businesses scheduled around the end-of-year holidays (about 24 December to 1 January); all primary data collection closes before Ramadan.

• Drafting (weeks 12–15, 1–26 Feb 2027): mostly desk-based, with limited follow-up interviews, as Ramadan is expected to begin around 8 February 2027.

• Finalization and review (weeks 16–20, 1 Mar – 2 Apr 2027): review rounds with Prosper Global and UNDP, and validation workshops after Eid al-Fitr (expected around 9–11 March 2027).

The Consultant will report to

Senior Regional Manager, Prosper Global Crisis Analysis

The Consultant will work closely with

Prosper Global Crisis Analysis County Lead and regional colleagues, UNDP counterparts, and the consultants leading the Syria and Jordan studies.

Required Experience & Skills

The Consultant should have:

• At least 7 years of experience in labor or development economics, political economy or a closely related field, including leading mixed-methods research (required).

• Demonstrated knowledge of Lebanon’s economy and labor market, including the regulatory framework governing Syrian employment and the role of informal labor (required).

• Proven experience conducting key informant interviews and focus group discussions with employers, public authorities, and host and refugee communities, and analyzing secondary data such as labor force and household surveys, VASyR and market monitoring data.

• Familiarity with research on refugee economic inclusion and return in Lebanon, and established networks among employers’ associations, municipalities and line ministries.

• Sound knowledge of research ethics, data protection and conflict-sensitive practice when working with refugees and other at-risk groups.

• Excellent analytical and report-writing skills in English, with a record of policy-relevant publications, and fluency in Arabic (required).

• Experience with sub-national economic analysis, employer surveys or remote-sensing data (desirable).

Eligibility & Application Requirements

Eligible candidates must be locally registered in Jordan, Syria or Lebanon, as a firm. Applications should include:

• A technical proposal (5 pages maximum), setting out:

• the candidate’s understanding of the research, its objectives and research questions;

• the proposed methodology and research design, including sampling, data sources, sector and location selection, and the study’s main limitations and how they will be addressed;

• the candidate’s track record of relevant research products, with links to or samples of up to two recent publications.

• A financial proposal and, where applicable, an itemized budget for field costs.

• Proof of local registration in Jordan, Syria or Lebanon.

Team Engagement and Effectiveness

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We recognize that building a strong and effective team is an ongoing process, and we remain committed to learning, improving, and growing together.

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